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Communicating risk and uncertainty

Creating guidelines, models and tools that explicitly identify risk and uncertainty, to help make decision-making more inclusive and multi-sectorial.

Project LeaderDurationBudget
Joanne Ellis & Fabrice Stephenson (University of Waikato)May 2020 – June 2023$1,399,990

Overview

Decision-making tools that can communicate the degree of risk and uncertainty associated with a particular decision are urgently needed. Although there are risk assessment methods available internationally, these typically focus on single stressors and do not incorporate mātauranga Māori or ecosystem-based management (EBM).

This project addresses 2 overarching questions:

  1. What risk assessment tools are available that incorporate uncertainty into their estimates, deal with multiple stressors, and are easy for stakeholders and Māori partners to understand and/or use?
  2. How do uncertainties (and thus social and ecological risks) accumulate during decision-making?

The second question includes the:

  • Uncertainties inherent in merging data from different scales – eg, scaling environmental, ecological and social information up or down to match each other or available model types
  • Uncertainties and risks at separate stages of assumptions, modelling and decision-making.

The team will work with iwi, stakeholders, investors, managers and policy makers to co-develop, and scenario test, decision-making tools that are informed by mātauranga Māori and EBM frameworks.

They will consider the cumulative effects of both marine and land-based activities – with a focus on sediment, nutrients, bottom disturbance and climate change, as these have been identified as the main stressors affecting New Zealand's marine environments.

Scenario testing will then be used to integrate environmental and socio-economic risks into integrated risk analysis frameworks.

These tools will be trialled in a case study area, working with Māori researchers in the Awhi Mai Awhi Atu: Enacting a kaitiakitanga based approach to EBM and Perceptions of risk and uncertainty projects.

Research Team

Joanne Ellis (University of Waikato)
Fabrice Stephenson (University of Waikato)
Judi Hewitt (NIWA/University of Auckland)
Ilze Ziedins (University of Auckland)
Maria Armoudian (University of Auckland)
Richard Bulmer (NIWA)
Dana Clark (Cawthron Institute)
Rebecca Gladstone-Gallagher (University of Auckland)
Ani Kainamu (NIWA)
Vera Rullens (University of Waikato)
Tai Lohrer (University of Auckland)

Related News

How to make better decisions to improve the marine environment19 Dec 2023Marine management decisions could protect critically endangered deep-water coral from extinction 10 Oct 2023Media Coverage April/May 202325 May 2023New research reveals a change in fisher behaviour around offshore marine protected areas15 May 2023Seafood Magazine: Better assessing risk 13 Oct 2022Te Au o Te Moana - Voice of the Ocean: Vera Rullens 6 Jul 2022New research helps weigh up risk and uncertainty in the ocean31 Aug 2021Our researchers nominated for Kudos Awards 202030 Nov 2020Media coverage in September 202020 Jan 2021Welcome to our new project leaders19 May 2020

Related Events

Webinar: Navigating choppy waters - understanding perceptions of risk and uncertainty in marine management

Project proposal

217 KB | pdf

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Location

This is a national project.

Tools & Resources

This project has produced or contributed to:

Cetacean conservation planning: dealing with uncertainty and data deficiencies
GraphicSummary
Fabrice Stephenson presented this poster at the 5th World Conference on Marine Biodiversity, Auckland, 13-16 December 2020
View
Cetacean conservation planning: dealing with uncertainty & data gaps
Presentation
Webinar recording of Fabrice Stephenson, 27 April 2021 (36 mins + Q&A)
View
Cetacean conservation planning in a global diversity hotspot: dealing with uncertainty and data deficiencies
Academic publication
Stephenson F, Hewitt JE, Torres LG, Mouton TL, Brough T, Goetz KT, Lundquist CJ, MacDiarmid AB, Ellis J, & Constantine R. (2021) Ecosphere 12( 7):e03633.
View
A review of risk assessment frameworks for use in marine ecosystem-based management (EBM) in Aotearoa New Zealand
Report
Clark DE, Gladstone-Gallagher R, Stephenson F & Ellis J (May 2021)
View
Deep seabed mining and communities: A transdisciplinary approach to ecological risk assessment in the South Pacific
Academic publication
Reichelt-Brushett A, Hewitt J, Kaiser S, Kim RE, Wood R (2021). Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, 00:1-10
View
Risk assessment for marine ecosystem-based management (EBM)
Academic publication
Clark DE, Gladstone-Gallagher RV, Hewitt JE, Stephenson F, Ellis JI (2022). Conservation Science and Practice, 12636.
View
Ecosystem-based management in Aotearoa New Zealand (UN Ocean Decade Laboratory)
Presentation
This webinar presentation and discussion was led by early-career researchers working with Sustainable Seas. March 2022 (1hr45m + 15m Q&A)
View
Te Au o Te Moana | Special Webinar Series: Healthy Seas
Presentation
This webinar was presented by Conrad Pilditch, Megan Ranapia, Rebecca Gladstone-Gallagher, Simon Thrush, Joanne Ellis, and Tom Brough. March 2022 (1hr, 30mins Q&A)
View
Seafood: Tools, resources and research
Summary
This is a research round-up of our tools, resources and research that support an ecosystem-based management (EBM) approach to the seafood industry (July 2022)
View
The impact of cumulative stressor effects on uncertainty and ecological risk
Academic publication
Rullens V, Stephenson F, Hewitt J, Clark D, Pilditch C, Thrush S, Ellis J (October 2022)
View
Ecosystem service mapping in marine environments: a case study
Guidance
This guidance explains what ecosystem service mapping is, and why it is useful for marine managers, planners, and other decision-makers. It provides a case study to demonstrate ecosystem service mapping in Tauranga Harbour. Rullens V (October 2022)
View
Waitī Waitā conference presentations
Presentation
The combined meeting of the New Zealand Marine and Freshwater Science Societies was held in November 2022, and research from several of our projects was presented.
View
Evidence of rebound effect in New Zealand MPAs: Unintended consequences of spatial management measures
Academic publication
Lohrer T, Hewitt J, Lohrer A, Parsons D, Ellis J & Stephenson F (May 2023)
View
New Zealands media and the crisis in the ocean: News norms and scientific urgency
Academic publication
Armoudian M, Stevens G, Stephenson F & Ellis J (May 2023)
View
Implications for the conservation of deep-water corals in the face of multiple stressors: a case study from the New Zealand region
Academic publication
Stephenson F, Rowden A, Anderson O, Ellis J, Geange S, Brough T, Behrens E, Hewitt J, Clark M, Tracey D, Goode S, Petersen G & Lundquist C (May 2023)
View
Quick guides: Navigating risk and uncertainty in marine management
Guidance
A series of five quick guides on navigating risk and uncertainty in marine management (November 2023)
View
Understanding and communicating risk and uncertainty | te tūraru me te haurokuroku in marine management
Guidance
Blackett P, Awatere S, Le Heron E, Le Heron R, Logie J, Hyslop J, Ellis J, Stephenson F, Hewitt J, Ziedins I, Armoudian M, Bulmer R, Clark D, Gladstone-Gallagher R, Kainamu A & Rullens V (November 2023)
View
Navigating choppy waters - understanding perceptions of risk and uncertainty in marine management
Presentation
Webinar presentation by Paula Blackett (NIWA), Shaun Awatere (Manaaki Whenua), and Joanne Ellis (University of Waikato), November 2023
View
Coupling marine ecosystem state with environmental management and conservation: A risk-based approach
Academic publication
Gladstone-Gallagher R, Hewitt J, Low J, Pilditch C, Stephenson F, Thrush S & Ellis J (February 2024)
View
Accounting for uncertainty in marine ecosystem service predictions for spatial prioritisation
Academic publication
Rullens V, Stephenson F, Townsend M, Lohrer A, Hewitt J, Pilditch C & Ellis J (March 2024)
View
An ecological principles-based approach to guide coastal environmental management
Summary
This summary highlights the findings of three academic publications from the Challenge (April 2024)
View

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