- Active project
Communicating risk and uncertainty
Creating guidelines, models and tools that explicitly identify risk and uncertainty, to help make decision-making more inclusive and multi-sectorial.
|Joanne Ellis & Fabrice Stephenson (University of Waikato)
|May 2020 – June 2023
Decision-making tools that can communicate the degree of risk and uncertainty associated with a particular decision are urgently needed. Although there are risk assessment methods available internationally, these typically focus on single stressors and do not incorporate mātauranga Māori or ecosystem-based management (EBM).
This project addresses 2 overarching questions:
- What risk assessment tools are available that incorporate uncertainty into their estimates, deal with multiple stressors, and are easy for stakeholders and Māori partners to understand and/or use?
- How do uncertainties (and thus social and ecological risks) accumulate during decision-making?
The second question includes the:
- Uncertainties inherent in merging data from different scales – eg, scaling environmental, ecological and social information up or down to match each other or available model types
- Uncertainties and risks at separate stages of assumptions, modelling and decision-making.
The team will work with iwi, stakeholders, investors, managers and policy makers to co-develop, and scenario test, decision-making tools that are informed by mātauranga Māori and EBM frameworks.
They will consider the cumulative effects of both marine and land-based activities – with a focus on sediment, nutrients, bottom disturbance and climate change, as these have been identified as the main stressors affecting New Zealand's marine environments.
Scenario testing will then be used to integrate environmental and socio-economic risks into integrated risk analysis frameworks.
These tools will be trialled in a case study area, working with Māori researchers in the Awhi Mai Awhi Atu: Enacting a kaitiakitanga based approach to EBM and Perceptions of risk and uncertainty projects.
Joanne Ellis (University of Waikato)
Fabrice Stephenson (University of Waikato)
Judi Hewitt (NIWA/University of Auckland)
Ilze Ziedins (University of Auckland)
Maria Armoudian (University of Auckland)
Richard Bulmer (NIWA)
Dana Clark (Cawthron Institute)
Rebecca Gladstone-Gallagher (University of Auckland)
Ani Kainamu (NIWA)
Vera Rullens (University of Waikato)
Tai Lohrer (University of Auckland)
- How to make better decisions to improve the marine environment - 19 December 2023
- Marine management decisions could protect critically endangered deep-water coral from extinction - 10 October 2023
- Media Coverage April/May 2023 - 01 June 2023
- New research reveals a change in fisher behaviour around offshore marine protected areas - 15 May 2023
- Seafood Magazine: Better assessing risk - 13 October 2022
- Te Au o Te Moana - Voice of the Ocean: Vera Rullens - 06 July 2022
- New research helps weigh up risk and uncertainty in the ocean - 31 August 2021
- Our researchers nominated for Kudos Awards 2020 - 27 November 2020
- Media coverage in September 2020 - 30 September 2020
- Welcome to our new project leaders - 18 July 2019
Webinar: Navigating choppy waters - understanding perceptions of risk and uncertainty in marine management
This is a national project.
May 2021Review of existing risk assessment frameworks
September 2021Summary on quantifying uncertainty with increasing stressors and different scales of data
May 2022Workshop with iwi and stakeholders to obtain feedback on decision-support tools
December 2022Development and trial of a cultural, social and ecological Bayesian Network for Ōhiwa Harbour
March 2023Report on models and tools that bring together key business, social, cultural and ecological uncertainties
May 2023Guidelines that conceptualise risk and uncertainty for their use in decision making
June 2023Identified knowledge gaps that will affect ability to predict likely outcome
June 2023Definitions of risk and uncertainty in mātauranga Māori and science terminology developed
June 2023Heuristic model developed and tested for fit-for-purpose with co-development partners