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Innovation Fund

Forecasting contamination risk for shellfish harvest and beach use

We have developed a near real-time forecasting tool for Tasman and Golden Bays to help predict when aquaculture sites and beaches are safe to access.

Project LeaderDurationBudget
Ben Knight (Cawthron Institute)February 2017 – September 2019 $450,000

Overview

The coasts are at the ‘end of the pipe’ for discharge from local rivers and streams, so seawater quality is sometimes compromised by bacteria from land-based activities. This can affect the revenue of shellfish growing areas and close local beaches to public use. 

Seawater in Tasman and Golden Bays is periodically contaminated with bacteria, causing temporary closure of commercial shellfish harvest and public beaches. The aquaculture industry and regional councils want more accurate and timely forecasting to better predict and manage risk. We created the first near real-time forecasting tool for the region, which will improve the prediction of contamination risk. 

Although improved land management practices may ultimately reduce contamination risk, our research aims to improve forecasting so that beaches are not closed when bacterial levels are within safe limits and harvesting of shellfish is not unnecessarily delayed.  

Our team of national experts from the Cawthron Institute, NIWA and MetOcean Solutions Limited have built connected models from the land to the region’s main rivers to the sea. We have combined river flow estimates with river bacterial measurements to predict contaminant discharges on the coast. The model is a daily forecast – like a weather map – of river plumes entering the sea and contaminant measurements that accurately estimate contaminant risk. 

Related News

Project proposal

969 KB | pdf

Location

Tools & Resources

This project has produced or contributed to:

BactiMap: forecasting contamination risk to shellfish
MapModel
This is a prototype model for forecasting E. coli contamination risk to shellfish in Tasman and Golden Bays.
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Detecting and forecasting coastal contamination
Presentation
Webinar presentation by Lincoln Mackenzie and Ben Knight, Oct 2019 (42 min + Q&A)
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Metadata catalogue: Forecasting contamination risk project
Dataset
This project has produced data about 3 rivers in Golden Bay. You can find out about these datasets through our metadata catalogue.
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Stressor footprints and dynamics
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This project has produced or contributed to